Why is economic confidence in the UK falling?

We’ve been running our Vistage CEO Confidence Index since 2003. It’s a quarterly barometer of SME CEOs, which reveals their sentiments about the UK economy and their own business prospects over the coming 12 months – and our Q4 2024 report has now been published. 

The headline figures show a steep drop in overall economic confidence, from 107.1 in Q3 to 91.4 in Q4. The percentage of respondents who believe that the UK’s overall economic conditions have worsened has risen from 41% to 44% in the same period…but is it all bad news? 

Rocky times ahead

The number of respondents who believe economic conditions have worsened over the last year has increased – and there are fears around the coming 12 months, too. 35% believe the UK’s economic situation will become worse over the next year – up from 26% in Q3 2024. 

Predictably, these sentiments are also echoed in revenue and profitability growth predictions. Only 57% expect their business’ revenue to rise in the next 12 months – down from 64% in Q3 – with 13% (up from 5%) expecting revenue to fall. 

As a result, just 34% (down from 48%) predict their profitability will increase over the same time frame. The percentage who believe it will decrease has doubled in the last quarter, from 16% to 31%, suggesting that 2025 could be a rocky ride. 

Here at Vistage, we’ve seen a 20% year-on-year increase in membership enquiries on the back of the UK’s economic situation. With growth proving difficult for many SMEs in such tough conditions, many are seeking mentorship, peer support and other external resources to help them flourish through challenging times. 

Talking talent

Despite their pessimism about prospects for 2025, top talent remains a priority for many SMEs. 46% say that they plan to increase their firm’s total number of employees over the next 12 months – similar to the 47% seen in Q3. Just 18% say they plan to decrease employee numbers: despite challenging times, SME leaders know they need the best possible team in place in order to thrive. 

We’re here to help

As confidence amongst SME leaders – both in the overall economy and in their own businesses – falls, it is unsurprising that many are seeking new ways to stand out from the competition, tackle pressing concerns and, ultimately, reach new peaks. 

Our influx of new Vistage member enquiries demonstrates this commitment to pushing onwards and upwards – and to support our members even better still, we have a new Managing Director who will be introducing brand new initiatives. 

Rebecca Drew has been appointed as the new Vistage Managing Director of UK & Ireland, supporting SME leaders in making better decisions that have a positive impact on their businesses, their teams and their communities. Focusing on building strategic partnerships and creating customised mentorship solutions, Rebecca is passionate about providing Vistage members with the guidance and tools they need to adapt, thrive and survive.

Read our Vistage CEO Confidence Index report in full

If you’re interested in learning more about our latest CEO Confidence Index results – and about Rebecca and her plans for Vistage and its members – download the report in full here.

We know that 2025 will be a challenging year for many SMEs, but amongst our member base, we also see huge amounts of resilience and innovation shining through. 

Through a combination of optimism, dedication, strategy and the right support, let’s defy the odds to make 2025 a success. 
We’re here to help. Learn more about how Vistage membership can help you compete better, work smarter and ultimately climb higher – both this year and beyond.

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