3 in 4 UK SME Leaders Doubt Autumn Budget Will Support Growth: Q3 Confidence Index Findings

The Labour government continues to signal that difficult decisions are ahead. With borrowing costs at a twenty-seven-year high and sluggish growth weighing on the economy, speculation is mounting around tax hikes and National Insurance adjustments.

The results of Vistage’s UK SME Confidence Index Q3 2025 have been released. And they reveal a challenging, mixed outlook for business leaders navigating the months ahead. 

Confidence has slipped to 88 points, down from 89.5 in Q2 and well below the 107.1 recorded in Q3, 2024. Read on for this report’s highlights and a link to download the free report in full.

Key findings at a glance

• Gloomy economic outlook: A striking 61% of CEOs believe economic conditions in the UK and Ireland have worsened compared with this time last year, up 13% from Q2. While fewer than 1 in 10 expect any improvement in the coming 12 months.
• Budget pessimism: Confidence in the upcoming Autumn Budget to support business growth is notably low, with just over three in four (76%) expressing minimal to no confidence.
• Revenue resilience: More than half of business leaders (57%) anticipate an increase in their firm’s sales revenues in the next year, even as customer demand shows signs of weakening.
• The profitability pinch: While optimism for revenue growth remains, 22% of leaders anticipate a decline in profitability, as firms juggle rising costs with softening demand.

Bracing for the Autumn Budget

As the Autumn Budget approaches, small and medium-sized business leaders across the UK are preparing to make tough decisions. And few are optimistic about what government policy will deliver.

A striking 76% of leaders have little to no confidence that the Autumn Budget will support business growth. 

Among their top wishes are cuts to business taxes, cited by 58% of respondents. Other asks include infrastructure investment, regulatory relief, and targeted incentives.

These highlight the gap between what businesses feel they need and what they expect the government will deliver.

Hiring trends: Investing in people

Despite headwinds, 37% of business leaders plan to expand their workforce in the coming year, with many focusing on employee engagement, hybrid work, and career development to retain and motivate teams.

Flexible working remains the norm, with nearly two-thirds of businesses offering hybrid working, and just under a third remaining fully onsite. 
Download the UK SME Confidence Index Q3 2025 here.

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