Social and Workforce Trends for 2026 and Beyond

In Part I of our series, we focus on social and workforce trends facing Vistage members in 2026 and beyond. Use this series to consider external forces for your strategic planning process, so your team can make fact-based decisions.

Headed into 2026, business leaders face an ever-shifting social landscape. COVID-19 wasn’t just a one-time event; its impact led to several structural changes to our society.

Patterns have changed, from where we live to how we work and what we consume. Below, we dive into the key trends likely to shape 2026 and beyond — from a stubborn employee engagement slump to frugal consumers and fluid brand loyalties, with an eye on how each might factor into corporate strategy.

The ‘No-Hire, No-Fire’ Labor Market

After two years of red-hot hiring and musical chairs in the job market, employment is cooling. In the first jobs report since the firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, the U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in August, well below what economists expected. Then the BLS shocked markets with a 911,000-downward revision for the period ending in March.

Unemployment rose to 4.3%, up from 50-year lows in 2022. Job openings have gradually declined, and continuing jobless claims (people on unemployment benefits) hit their highest level since late 2021 this June.

There is a “no-hire, no-fire” stalemate that puts both employers and their workers in an awkward position. Managers are having to fight for headcount as the C-suite looks for ways to drive productivity via AI. And unhappy employees may stay longer than they would otherwise.

Talent acquisition may get easier as more candidates stay on the market longer, but top talent is still hard to snag (and even harder to keep).

Less Satisfied Employees

Employee engagement remains depressed. Gallup reports U.S. workplace engagement rose slightly to 33% this year, only a point higher than the 10-year low in 2024. Two-thirds of employees are “not engaged” or checked out on the job. Younger workers are especially detached, with Gen Z engagement sliding five points in a year.

Employee Engagement

Source: Gallup

For management teams, stalled engagement isn’t only a threat to retention; it’s a drain on productivity. Disengaged employees tend to do the bare minimum, and some 17% are “actively disengaged” (i.e., spreading the misery). Small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) must double down on engagement strategies: clear role expectations, recognition, growth opportunities, and yes, competent managers (Gallup attributes about 70% of engagement variance to managers).

Wages vs. Inflation: Only Half Keeping Up

Source: Indeed Wage Tracker

Wages are barely keeping pace with inflation. Federal data illustrates this paycheck tug-of-war vividly: only 57% of U.S. workers saw their pay outrun inflation as of June 2025, albeit up from a dismal 44% at 2022’s inflation peak. In other words, nearly half of workers are still losing buying power or just breaking even amid a higher cost of living.

Employers must remain vigilant. Expect ongoing pressure for pay raises or cost-of-living adjustments—employees know when their “real” earnings are flat. The latest ADP Pay Insights revealed median pay was up 4.4% for job-stayers, which shows progress, but any inflation resurgence (still a possibility) could quickly erode those gains.

Wage Inflation By Mobility Type

Source: ADP Pay Insights

Second, uneven wages can impact morale and turnover: workers whose pay doesn’t keep up may jump to higher-paying roles (the job-changer pay premium was 7%). Consider building various wage vs. inflation scenarios into your 2026 budgeting.

The employment market has reached a fragile equilibrium: any recession shock in 2026 could push up layoffs, whereas a growth surge could tighten hiring overnight.

An Aging Society with a Shrinking Workforce

The lack of population growth is a global crisis.

The U.S. added about 70 million people from 1995 to 2024, but in the next 30 years it’s projected to add only 23 million — roughly a third of the previous rate. The U.S. population will grow by only 0.5% in 2025.

Why? Plunging birth rates and lower immigration. The total fertility rate hit a historic low of 1.6 (children per woman) in 2020 (far below the 2.1 replacement level) and isn’t expected to bounce back. At the same time, immigration has been volatile, and in recent years even net-negative — a startling first since the 1960s.

Percentage of U.S. Population Over 65

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Coupled with slow growth is the graying of America. By 2030, one in five Americans will be age 65+. That’s all baby boomers crossing traditional retirement age. We’re headed for a society with more grandparents than grandchildren, and that has profound workforce implications.

As the population pyramid inverts, the old-age dependency ratio (65+ per 100 working-age) is rising sharply. In 2025, there are about 37 seniors per 100 working-age people; by 2055, it’ll be 46 per 100. In plain terms, fewer workers will support more retirees. Labor force growth is already stagnating: the U.S. labor participation rate, which was 61.7% in 2020, is projected to dip to 60.4% by 2030. Even where older individuals are working longer (the 75+ workforce is set to nearly double by 2030), it won’t fully offset the wave of boomers exiting prime working years.

Shifting Consumerism: Where We Go, and What We Do There

The income gap is only widening, which is perpetuating a split in consumerism. According to Moody’s, the top 10% of wage earners now represent 50% of consumer spending.

And particularly among the less affluent, the pandemic shifted behavior forever — we have become homebodies.

In the U.S., remote work has freed up an extra 3 hours of free time per week on average, much of which people promptly reinvest in themselves at home. Habits like online shopping are deeply ingrained: over 90% of U.S. consumers reported shopping at an online-only retailer in the past month, and grocery delivery, meal kits, and at-home fitness are now mainstream (roughly 40% of Americans used a grocery delivery service in a given week in 2025).

E-commerce in 2025 is being reshaped by the convergence of social video, in-platform shopping, and subscription fatigue. Shoppers increasingly discover products not through traditional search or ads, but through short-form video and creator content.

This has fueled the surge in social commerce, projected to exceed $90 billion in U.S. sales this year, as platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube double down on integrated checkout. At the same time, consumers are pushing back against the growing number of subscriptions. From streaming to retail memberships, fatigue has set in, with buyers preferring bundled services or flexible pay-as-you-go models. For SMBs, this means opportunity and risk: look for ways to meet customers where they already are (scrolling social feeds) while designing offers that feel frictionless and value-driven.

Consumers are back to being frugal again. Facing high living costs and lingering economic uncertainty, households tightened their belts in 2025. A late 2024 Harris Poll found 83% of Americans say saving money is a bigger priority now than in past years, and 81% specifically are prioritizing saving on food. A whopping 89% of consumers believe cooking at home is cheaper and healthier than dining out or takeout, which is driving what they consume.

This everyday frugality goes beyond food. People are hunting for deals on utilities, cutting subscription services, and postponing big-ticket purchases.

Consumers today are pinching pennies on Monday, and splurging on “must-haves” by Friday. Welcome to the era of “smart discretion,” where people exercise thrift in some areas so they can indulge in others that matter to them. And yet, many are not willing to give up all their luxuries; more than one-third of consumers have intentionally traded down in one category so they can splurge in another.

So, what are people splurging on? Two noticeable areas: premium experiences/brands, and wellness. Pent-up travel demand, “functional” luxury (like high-end home office gear or gourmet coffee that makes WFH brighter), and personal wellness have seen resilient spending. For example, health and wellness products are booming — U.S. sales in that sector rose 6.4% year-over-year by early 2024 despite inflation, as consumers invest in supplements, fitness gear, and mental health apps.

In a world still catching up with Zoom fatigue, 2025 travel habits are shifting: we’re traveling more, but differently. Leisure trips are back, with 53% of Americans taking vacations this summer, up from 48% in 2024, making this one of the most travel-heavy seasons since the pandemic.

Here’s the nuance: business travel is inching toward recovery — global spend is climbing toward $1.64 trillion in 2025, up about 11% from 2024.

Mental Health and Why Young Men Are Struggling to Cope

Lower employee engagement correlates with a mental health decline in the post-COVID era. In the aftermath of the election, two things became clear: many people struggled with their mental health, and the most disenfranchised group was men 18-34.

Many young men feel left behind as economic, social, and cultural shifts reshape traditional pathways to success. Rising housing and education costs, coupled with stagnant wages, have eroded confidence in upward mobility. Declining participation in the labor force, especially in manufacturing and trade sectors, has left some without a clear career path. Social expectations are also shifting — norms around masculinity are contested, leaving many uncertain about their sense of self. This mix of economic strain, cultural flux, and diminished institutions creates a sense of exclusion among many young men.

Not-So-Affordable Housing

Meanwhile, affordable housing remains unaffordable. The U.S. has still not recovered from the liquidity crisis of 2008. In the period from May 2019 to May 2025, the average U.S. home price spiked by over 50%, as many markets played catch-up to inflated markets such as California. Those who didn’t already own a home before COVID have a lessening ability to buy one.

Population Growth vs. Housing Starts

Source: Federal Reserve Bank

In July 2025, U.S. home prices rose 1.2% year-over-year, with the median sale price at about $443,019. Meanwhile, Zillow reports that from October 2017 to October 2024, rents in metro areas climbed 49%, significantly outpacing wage growth in many places. Asking rents in August 2025 averaged $1,790 per month — 2.6% higher than a year earlier — marking the largest annual rent increase since late 2022.

On the homeowner side, median gross rent (rent + utilities) increased 2.7% from $1,448 in 2023 to $1,487 in 2024 (inflation-adjusted), per Census data. Home price/rent ratios have also climbed roughly 20% since Q1 2020, highlighting that homes have become much more expensive relative to what people pay in rent.

In Conclusion

The workforce landscape heading into 2026 is fragile. Engagement is stalled, affordability pressures linger, and some employees feel left behind. Consumers are cautious yet selective in where they splurge, creating unpredictable demand. For SMBs, success will hinge on adaptability — investing in people, tracking shifts closely, and staying nimble enough to pivot in a world of change.

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