Pessimism Eases; Small Business Confidence Holds [WSJ/Vistage Jan 2026]

As small businesses enter the new year, the tone is measurably less optimistic than it was a year ago. However, confidence has steadily improved since November, driven by positive expectations for business growth.

The WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index held at 94.1 in January, in line with 94.3 recorded in December and more than 8 points above the 12-month average of 86. Small businesses have adapted to uncertainty and recalibrated, capitalizing on the moderate growth forecasted for the year ahead.

Overall confidence of small business leaders is driven by positive expectations for their businesses in the year ahead; 67% expect increased revenues in the year ahead, and 56% expect increased profits. These forward-looking indicators have been stable over the last three months, suggesting a slight acceleration in demand.

Revenue and Profit Expectations Strong as Marketing Investments Diversify

As small businesses explore how to leverage generative AI, marketing often emerges as the starting ground.

Nearly a third of small business leaders indicated they took advantage of new avenues to reach customers. From new events to new technology, 30% of small business leaders report incremental marketing spend in 2025 to capitalize on these opportunities.

Looking ahead, 43% of small businesses plan to increase their marketing spend in 2026. Our analysis of open-ended responses about why budgets are increasing reveals three clear themes.

1. Growth Goals: Expanding Market Share, Client Base, and Revenue

Many small business leaders cite growth ambitions — whether through gaining market share, increasing revenue, or scaling products — as the key reason for their increased marketing budgets in 2026. Chris Sutton, principal of Sutton Engineering in Plano, Texas, captures this sentiment simply: “Planning on growing and more than doubling this year.”

Marketing budgets are often increased to support new products, services, or market expansions as part of overall growth strategies. Investments are dedicated to launching new offerings (especially tech and AI), entering new geographies, or diversifying client segments. Despite economic headwinds, many remained committed to their expansion plans. As Ellie Puckett, CEO of Resonate Recordings in Louisville, Kentucky, explains, “We are in growth mode despite economic conditions.”

2. Strategic Marketing Overhaul or Formalization

Small business leaders have also referenced either starting a formal marketing strategy or revamping their current one. The professionalization of marketing includes investments such as hiring agencies, targeting, and website refreshes. There is also a focus on building content pipelines, supported by the addition of tools such as AI and CRM.

CEOs cite that investment decisions were driven by new leadership, changing conditions, and post-pandemic shifts in the market and among customers.

Part of this professionalization starts with marketing companies that recognize the opportunities presented by AI and are leaders in bringing these capabilities to their customers,” says Kathryn Courtney, President/CEO of Mix Consulting, a Seattle-based marketing firm. Courtney says she recognized the need to become AI-savvy partners to their customers early, leveraging the tools to deliver more effective marketing solutions. “We recognized early on that our choice was to get ahead of it or to be behind it,” she adds.

3. Response to Competitive Pressure or Market Conditions

Increased marketing budgets also represent a defensive move for small businesses, as they strive to stay relevant, counter sluggish demand, or capitalize on competitors exiting markets. The urgency is clear in responses like this from Jerry Green, President/CEO of Prestige Contracting in Poway, California: “Our backlog is shrinking, so we will need to increase our marketing budget.”

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January Highlights

The January 2026 WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index was calculated from an online survey sent to CEOs and other key leaders who are active U.S. Vistage members. The survey, conducted between January 5-12, 2026, collected data from 335 respondents with annual revenues ranging from $1 million to $20 million. The Index is calculated based on favorable minus unfavorable responses from this set of standard questions, plus 100, anchored to June 2012 = 100.

• Current Economy: Sentiment about the U.S. economy compared to a year ago continues to improve; the proportion of small business leaders who believe it is worse than a year ago has dropped from 43% to 34%. Optimism improved marginally, with 24% of small business leaders reporting improvements, up slightly from 22% last month.
• Future Economy: Forward-looking sentiment among small business leaders also continues to creep forward as over one-third (34%) believe the economy will improve, while 23% believe it will worsen in the next 12 months.
• Revenue Projections: Just over two-thirds (67%) of small business leaders anticipate revenue growth in the year ahead, and 10% expect declining revenues.
• Profitability Projections: The proportion of small business leaders who expect increased profitability rose to 56%, while those who expect declines is 16%.
• Fixed Investment Plans: Plans for fixed investments remain unchanged among small business leaders: nearly one-third (32%) plan to increase fixed investments in the next 12 months, while 13% expect to scale back.
• Workforce Expansion Plans: Half of small business leaders indicate plans to add staff in the next 12 months. Just 7% plan reductions in force in the year ahead.

To explore the full January 2025 WSJ/Vistage Small Business data set, visit our data center or download the infographic.

The February 2026 WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index will be calculated from responses to the monthly WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO survey, conducted from February 2-9, 2026, from Vistage member companies reporting $1-20 million in annual revenue.

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