Optimism amid uncertainty: Our latest Vistage Economic Update

Our Vistage Economic Updates are different from traditional economic forecasts. Behavioural economist, Roger Martin-Fagg, approaches the economy through a behavioural lens, giving an optimistic – yet realistic – look at what lies ahead for SMEs and the wider economy. 

Our April 2025 Economic Update is now available to download here: read on for a taste of what to expect. 

The Trump effect

Roger’s report draws a vital distinction between risk and uncertainty. While risks can be assigned a probability – the likelihood of an interest rate or tax change, for example, uncertainties like Brexit, COVID-19 or Trump’s presidency cannot easily be calculated, but certainly require scenario planning. 

No economic update would be complete without a mention of Donald Trump’s return to the political scene. His seemingly impulsive policymaking, protectionist stance and disregard for traditional economic alliances – and, of course, his tariffs – are creating ripples across the entire globe. 

Based on leading indicators, there is around a 30% chance of a mild recession in the US, and the dollar is expected to weaken against the Euro and Sterling. The Trump effect is leading to money moving out of the US and into Europe and the UK, benefiting these economies, while the price of gold – traditionally seen as a safe haven – has surged by over 40% over the last year, signalling heightened uncertainty and fear. 

These global shifts may represent a warning, but could also offer opportunities to UK businesses willing to shift quickly. 

What about the UK? 

Here in the UK, Roger paints a picture that combines challenges with hidden strengths. 

As a result of political dissatisfaction and media negativity, both consumer spending and economic activity are suffering. Over the past 18 months, British households have saved an extra £75bn in bank deposits. While this gives individuals a great buffer, it also means a greater amount of money than usual that is sitting idle rather than helping to fuel economic growth. 

Despite the introduction of new business taxes, such as the £24bn NIC levy, Roger predicts that the overall impact on the UK economy may be less damaging than media headlines suggest. The real challenge? Working to restore both business and consumer confidence. 

In our latest Economic Update, Roger encourages businesses to try and resist the narrative of doom and gloom. Instead, he highlights the structural strengths which underpin the UK – including the resilience and dynamism of our nation’s SMEs. 

What should SME leaders do now? 

Roger’s call to action is simple: it’s time for SME leaders to lead boldly. By investing in innovation and training, adapting quickly to changing conditions, focusing on longer-term strategy and looking for new opportunities presented by excess savings and shifting money flows, SME owners can chart a confident path forward. 

If you’re a business leader looking for practical, grounded insights to inform your decisions in 2025 and beyond, download the April 2025 Quarterly Vistage Economic Update in full. With invaluable data, thoughtful analysis and a perspective that cuts through the noise of sensationalist media narrative, can you afford to miss out? 

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