Half of UK SME Leaders Expect Profitability to Improve Over the Next Year: Q4 Confidence Index Findings

The results of the latest Vistage Confidence Index have been released. And they paint a picture of resilience, pragmatism, and renewed confidence among UK and Irish SME leaders.

The Autumn Budget has done little to reassure leaders about the direction of the wider economy. However, leaders are doubling down on what they can control. 

Planned investment is up, and many are feeling cautiously optimistic about their revenues and profitability for the year ahead. Accordingly, the Q4 CEO Confidence Index shows overall confidence rising to 93.6, up from 88 in Q3 and 91.4 this time last year.

We view this as a clear indication that businesses are becoming increasingly confident in their own abilities to navigate the challenging conditions ahead, rather than relying on external support.

Read on for the report’s key findings.

Download the Q4 2025 Vistage Confidence Index in full.

Key findings at a glance

• Economic sentiment remains gloomy: More than half of leaders say economic conditions have deteriorated in the UK and Ireland over the past year. Meanwhile, almost four in ten expect things to further worsen in the next twelve months.
• Optimism around profit remains: Half of all SME leaders expect revenue and profitability to improve, even as rising costs continue to weigh heavily.
• Investment continues: Nearly four in ten plan to increase fixed investment, with a similar proportion intending to maintain current spending levels.
• AI becomes commonplace in leadership: Almost three-quarters say Generative AI is already being used at leadership level, with just a tiny 7% of businesses reporting no AI use at all.

Investing through uncertainty

Leaders are painfully aware of the economic and geopolitical challenges ahead. But they aren’t simply battening down the hatches and quietly riding out the storm until conditions improve.

Instead, they’re actively doubling down on strengthening their competitive position and laying the groundwork for sustainable growth.

Over three-quarters of leaders expect their total fixed investment expenditures to increase or remain the same over the next twelve months, with just two in ten anticipating a reduction.

Top priorities include product and service development, adopting new technologies, and making changes to leadership.

Generative AI becomes business as usual

The generative AI boom of the past few years is set to continue steadily into 2026, with almost half of leaders citing investment in AI as a top priority for the year ahead.

Meanwhile, generative AI seems to have already become business as usual in many organisations. More than seven in ten leaders say members of the leadership team use AI, while almost half report that employees use AI tools independently. In fact, just a tiny 7% say that AI is not being used at all. 

Amidst growing concern around AI-related job losses, almost half of all SME leaders anticipate that AI will lead to role re-allocation, while 14% expect it to create entirely new roles. Just 15% expect AI to reduce headcount.
Download the Q4 2025 Vistage Confidence Index.

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