What is the Long-Term Economic Outlook for 2015 and Beyond?

U.S. leading indicators show: Employment is rising, banks are lending, retail sales are up, non-residential construction is improving, and while deficit spending continues, there is no fear of austerity. This is according to economists Alan and Brian Beaulieu, from ITR Economics – a firm that’s been providing business leaders with economic trends insights since 1948. They advise our Vistage members on the long-term economic outlook. Their early warnings about the 2008 financial crisis helped us, and many of our members, weather the storm with greater resiliency than most.  While no one has the definitive crystal ball to the future, we can see what’s looming around the corner – both good and bad – and be better prepared.

Recently, Alan and Brian led a 90-minute webinar for our members that reinforced much of what our own survey results said about the upcoming year. Americans are spending and saving. All positive signs. That said, while they advocated being bold during the next few years, they also reinforced a prediction they have been talking quite a bit about in recent years.  They see a recession in 2019 and a great depression in 2030, which they also cover in their book (now in its second printing) titled: Prosperity in the Age of Decline.

While Alan and Brian were crystal clear that this is a great time to be an American and leading a company, their prediction serves as a powerful reminder for 2015 and beyond. As CEOs, it’s our responsibility to know what’s coming and do everything we can to meet the challenges and seize the opportunities that lay ahead.  The more we look around us and focus on the future, the greater chance we have of seeing around the corner and finding ways to succeed whether the economy at large is in the midst of prosperity or decline.

If you’d like to learn more about our own survey results and the near-term outlook, last week I covered some of the highlights from our latest Vistage CEO Confidence Index and WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO survey. You can read that here.

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