Each day, Shaun Tomson makes the choice to practice resilient leadership. This practice began in 1975 during a surfing competition at Waimea Bay in Hawaii, long before Tomson ever consulted with a business or spoke to a Vistage group.
At the time, Tomson says that waves at Waimea Bay were surfing’s equivalent of Mount Everest, the pinnacle of big-wave riding. Then, a professional surfer, Tomson felt awe at the size of the waves — watching the water fall from them was like watching buildings crumble.
When it was Tomson’s turn, he rode an enormous wave but wiped out, was dragged under the water, and nearly drowned in a riptide. He knew that no help would arrive, as competitions in that era had no rescue team and no lifeguards. It was just him and his board alone in the water.
Tomson struggled back to his board, land within sight, and saw that he had an existential choice to make. If he went back to shore, he’d surely lose the competition. If he paddled back out to catch another wave, he had a chance to win.
At that moment, Tomson chose to paddle back out and catch another wave, a choice that he’s stuck with since that day.
He didn’t win the competition, but he learned that being resilient means having hope, being committed to your purpose, and taking actions that reflect that hope and purpose. And that’s what he teaches the executives and leaders across the country.
“Resilience is a committed intention,” says Tomson, a Vistage speaker and author of several books, including The Code: The Power of I Will. “By paddling back out, I’m going to get the next wave. It’s an apt metaphor for anyone in business. When things collapse, and they will, what are you going to do? Are you going to paddle in or are you going to paddle back out. It’s a simple, fundamental choice.”
Even through the death of a child, which Tomson experienced in 2006, he and his wife made the choice to continue paddling back out, knowing that the sun will rise again tomorrow. Life isn’t always fair, but it always gives leaders the chance to practice resilience, beyond “bouncing back” and toward growing through adversity.
As Bob Day testified before the Portland City Council, he felt his heart racing. He looked at his Apple Watch and saw that his heart rate was 120 beats per minute, far above his resting rate.
Day, a Visage speaker, owner and CEO of Reluctant Change and chief of the Portland Police Bureau in Oregon, says that it was a contentious meeting, but it was completely nonviolent.
No one was shooting at him; he wasn’t in trouble. His body was simply having a fight-or-flight response, made to help him escape trouble, something that any leader practicing resilience must grow accustomed to feeling.
After the meeting, Day calmed down. He assessed the situation and messaged the members of the Council with whom he disagreed, inviting them to discuss the issue further. All responded positively, and Day was happy to practice resilient leadership right after a hard moment.
For Day, practicing resilient leadership is about being able to move forward in the face of adversity. Sometimes, that means assessing the situation and ensuring people are safe and protected before moving forward. Sometimes, as with the City Council, it means staying calm through a stressful situation before continuing to resolve it.
However, resilient leadership always means embracing the moment, learning from it, and working to resolve any lingering issues, while maintaining faith that you will prevail.
Like Tomson, Day also believes that resilience always means being able to persevere and continue without abandoning hope. Day compares resilient leadership to the Stockdale Paradox, a term coined by author Jim Collins to describe Admiral James Stockdale’s experience as a prisoner of war.
According to the Stockdale Paradox, one must confront the brutal facts of current reality while maintaining an unwavering faith that they will prevail.
To be effectively resilient through the most challenging times, Day also believes that leaders must have a vision and purpose in addition to their hope. Like Tomson, Day and his wife also lost a child and worked hard to never abandon hope and a vision for what they want their lives to be, even when life felt bleak.
“Hope gave us something to shoot for but also challenged us to keep striving towards our purpose,” Day says, citing their ability to stay together as a couple and continue for their daughter.
Business leaders often dismiss hope as inactive or weak, Day says, but he believes that hope is something active, something leaders can practice each day.
“Hope is moving towards a goal,” Day says. “Living with hope, with a goal in mind of where we’re going to move towards, is better than sitting around and waiting to be overcome by the next event. Leaders are dealers in hope.”
Learning resilient leadership is less about gaining new knowledge and more about changing one’s mindset, Tomson says. Resilience reflects choosing between quitting and growing in the face of problems.
“You’ve got to be imbued with a sense of hope, and you have to have a committed purpose,” Tomson says. “That’s what resilience is to me.”
To find a purpose, Tomson instructs attendees of his talks to take out a sheet of paper, write “I will” 12 times, and then spend 15 minutes listing the things they will do. He calls this writing their “Code,” and says it helps give people a sense of purpose by showing them the things inside themselves that they want to be doing.
The lines may read “I will volunteer,” “I will lead by example,” or “I will be a light in the darkness.” But whatever is written across those 12 lines, Tomson says that these committed statements — especially when read aloud in front of a peer group or team — are a powerful way to find one’s own Code while creating accountability and unity for a team.
“The CEO can tell their stories, their codes, and get their team to share their own codes,” Tomson says. “Any CEO can do it, and it has a terrific impact on an organization. When you look at your own words, your own vision, they give you energy and power, they give you commitment.”
One way to multiply the impact of this exercise, Tomson says, is for the executive to find a personal story that tells the tale of resilience. Tomson tells the story of paddling back out, and one can feel the hope and purpose behind his resilience. Business leaders can do the same for themselves and those whom they lead.
“Any leader can find a story that relates to this concept of a loss or failure, and what the reaction was to that failure,” Tomson says. “The simple story arc of how the hero overcame the failure, and ultimately what he learned from the failure. Achieving success through failure and learning to become a better human being is a powerful story.”
Research by Stanford professor Jennifer Anker has revealed that stories are remembered up to 22 times more than facts alone. Stories are a simple and powerful way to inspire and unify teams.
Another way to foster this mindset change is by joining a like-minded group of leaders. Humans are tribal by nature, Day says, but leaders tend to feel isolated. By joining a group of like-minded, resilient leaders, such as Vistage, Day says that executives can draw strength from one another.
“We allow ourselves to tell each other stories to make sense of what we’re facing,” Day says. “We need to be in community, because we need that support network and those relationships to make sense of what’s happening.”
Beyond what happens at work, practicing resilient leadership comes in all phases of life. Leaders must take care of their physical health with exercise, their social health with personal connections, their emotional health by becoming aware of how they feel, and their mental resilience by reducing stress and practicing mindfulness.
Find ways to build and support your physical, social and emotional well-being.
Visit the Vistage CEO Health & Wellness Resource Center.
A focus on health adds to one’s purpose of being resilient, something of a spiritual practice itself, Tomon says. When that purpose is strong enough, it can feed the entire company and its customers.
“For me, the purpose is the new profit in business,” Tomson says. “When a customer wants to buy a product, he wants to be a part of a purposeful company, and not a company that’s out there just for profit, sales and growth. What is the company doing socially? What is the company doing environmentally? There has to be a sort of a reason for being beyond enriching the shareholders.”
In his work as police chief, and even as a Vistage speaker, Day has seen that leaders are often willing to be transparent but often lose vulnerability with their teams in tough moments. Vulnerability, he believes, is a key trait of resilient leadership, one that will help foster a resilient organization.
The key difference between vulnerability and transparency is emotional honesty. In transparency, Day says that leaders may tell the team what’s happening, how they’re going to solve an issue, and what each employee should do.
With vulnerability, leaders show that they don’t have it all figured out — they may tell the team it will be difficult, that the result is not guaranteed, and that finding the solution could be a struggle. Vulnerable leaders refuse to sugarcoat the details.
“I’ve been out on scenes that I know are going to upset our community, and I’ve had advisors say, ‘Maybe we shouldn’t say this,’” Day says. “But I’m going to say it all. I’d rather be the one to lead this conversation and to give people hope.”
When leaders express vulnerability and transparency, Day says they must also have a plan. It’s the leader’s job to have an opinion on what to do, and the team expects that. Leaders are sometimes afraid to show their vulnerability, even with a plan, but Day says that he draws strength from his vulnerability, and so does his team.
“Nobody roots for somebody who appears to be perfect or unfazed by what’s happening,” Day says. “It doesn’t mean that I go into roll call and cry every day. But there’s a level of strength and confidence that comes from demonstrating your humanity. That ties directly into being a resilient leader.”
Engagement and connection with employees are also essential to ensure that the entire company becomes more resilient, Day says. People in the workforce want to know that you have their back.
In his job as police chief, Day doesn’t go out and work radio calls like he used to, but he wants to understand what his officers deal with each day. And he wants his team to know a bit about what he deals with, hence the honesty and vulnerability.
“A common trait among leaders who demonstrate resiliency is that they’re engaged with their team,” Day says. “Maybe it’s not their personality or their style—they aren’t funny or outgoing or whatever — but staying relevant helps others know that they’re in good hands with the leader. You’re going to fail as a leader, but there’s a greater amount of grace attributed to the leader who stays connected and vulnerable, because employees know that it’s not lazy or superficial. It’s just a mistake, and we all make mistakes.”
Practicing resilient leadership is a moment-to-moment, day-to-day practice in changing one’s mindset.
There are small habits that help leaders thrive, such as practicing gratitude, forgiving themselves and their employees when mistakes occur, and connecting with nature. Tomson learned these lessons in his darkest moments of practicing resilience.
But like Tomson paddling back out to catch a big wave in the face of danger, there’s a mindset shift that takes place for the most resilient leaders. They decide to accept that failures and mistakes do happen, but that matters far less than their hope and purpose. They decide to keep a positive attitude and always move forward, even amid dire circumstances.
These leaders can better help themselves by having nurturing relationships where they can laugh, be honest, and learn from others. “CEO is a very lonely position in many ways,” Tomson says. “Vistage is a wonderful group where CEOs can get together and be honest. The Vistage groups that I’ve interacted with have a generalized feeling of hope and optimism. It’s almost like it’s an emotional contagion.”
Ultimately, resilient leadership is an individual journey, Day says. One can read all the books, listen to all the podcasts, or attend all the groups they’d like, but resilience can only be practiced in the privacy of one’s inner self. This is why Day sees self-awareness as one of the best practices for leaders who want more resilience — where are they uncomfortable in their lives and in their business? And how can they become comfortable with that discomfort?
“I would encourage people to be willing to be comfortable in the uncomfortable,” Day says. “That’s where you’re going to grow. That’s where the strength is going to come from. We don’t get better when it’s easy.”
What the Best CEOs DO Differently — and Why it Works
CEO Burnout Prevention: How Resilient Leaders Prioritize Wellness During Uncertainty
In a city known for bold decisions and transformative thinking, exceptional leaders understand that reaching your full potential requires surrounding yourself with others who challenge you to think bigger and act bolder. This comprehensive guide explores Dallas’s premier peer advisory landscape, with in-depth analysis of how the right local connections accelerate business leadership development. You’ll discover the strategic advantage of professionally facilitated groups and learn why Dallas’s most successful executives choose structured peer advisory over casual networking.
Here’s what you’ll learn about peer advisory groups in Dallas:
“In these advisory groups we’ve created an atmosphere of trust, sharing, warmth and empathy — and for many it’s the only place they can let their guard down and really be seen.” – Artie Issac, Vistage Chair
Dallas’s explosive growth demands leaders who can scale themselves as rapidly as they scale their businesses. The challenges facing today’s executives, from talent retention in competitive markets to navigating economic uncertainty, require insights that only come from collective intelligence and proven experience.
The most successful Dallas leaders recognize a fundamental truth: strategic isolation is a growth killer. When every decision flows through you and when the stakes get higher with each choice, you need more than internal advisors or industry consultants. You need executive peers who’ve faced similar challenges and can share battle-tested approaches.
Individual coaching provides one expert opinion. Industry associations offer familiar viewpoints. But peer advisory groups deliver something irreplaceable: 12-16 different strategic approaches to your specific challenges, each backed by real executive experience.
Consider a Dallas CEO evaluating market expansion into Austin. A strategy consultant might provide market analysis, and an executive coach could help with confidence and decision-making. But your peer group includes CEOs who’ve expanded successfully into new markets, others who learned from costly mistakes and leaders who chose different growth strategies entirely. This diversity of experience creates breakthrough insights impossible to achieve alone.
Research consistently demonstrates the performance advantage of structured peer advisory, with Vistage members showing remarkable resilience during economic downturns and capitalizing more effectively on growth opportunities.
Vistage operates the world’s largest peer advisory network, serving 45,000 members across 40 countries with a methodology refined over 65+ years. In Dallas, multiple accomplished Chairs lead established groups designed specifically for growth-oriented executives leading companies with $5M+ in annual revenue.
| Professional facilitation drives breakthrough results | Every Vistage group operates under expert Chair facilitation. These aren’t peer-led discussions or casual networking meetups. Dallas Chairs are accomplished executives who understand both the strategic complexity and emotional challenges of leadership at your level. They guide conversations using proven frameworks that transform challenges into actionable strategies. |
| Structured methodology amplifies peer wisdom | Monthly full-day sessions combine confidential issue processing, expert speakers and individual coaching. The proprietary Vistage methodology ensures focused, productive discussions that respect your time while delivering maximum strategic value. This isn’t general business advice — it’s targeted leadership development designed for executives managing complex organizations. |
| A confidential environment enables authentic growth | Dallas groups consist of non-competing companies, creating the trust necessary for honest strategic discussion. This confidential structure allows leaders to examine their biggest challenges openly, admit uncertainties without competitive risk and receive feedback that drives real organizational change. |
Dallas benefits from experienced Vistage Chairs who bring diverse backgrounds and specialized expertise to executive peer advisory, each committed to developing exceptional leaders.
Bob Wightman believes that who you surround yourself with defines your growth as a leader. As a Vistage Chair, he brings together accomplished Dallas-area executives who value trust, challenge, and accountability to help one another learn and lead more effectively.
With more than 20 years as a CEO in banking institutions ranging from startups to multibillion-dollar organizations, he draws on deep financial and operational expertise to guide his members. Through The Wightman Group, he combines executive coaching and systems insight to help leaders turn complex goals into measurable outcomes.
Becky Powell-Schwartz is a results-driven leader with more than 25 years of experience helping organizations protect and elevate their brands through change and growth. As founder and CEO of a public relations and marketing firm, she has guided companies through mergers, acquisitions, leadership transitions, and crises with clarity and precision.
A trusted advisor to Fortune 500 executives and entrepreneurs alike, she brings both strategic discipline and empathy to her coaching. A recipient of multiple Vistage Chair Excellence Awards, she leads two CEO groups and an Emerging Leader cohort, empowering rising talent across industries.
John Suvanto is an accomplished executive with global experience spanning North America, Latin America, the Middle East and Asia. As Managing Member of Azul, he provides corporate advisory services that help small and mid-sized companies simplify, scale, and strengthen their business value.
His prior roles include Chief Operating Officer for an EB-5 Regional Center financing $12 billion in renewable energy projects and Financier at UPS Capital, where he led major international funding initiatives. Fluent in 4 languages and active in Dallas civic leadership, he serves on multiple boards and advisory committees, combining global perspective with local impact.
Vistage Dallas groups operate monthly full-day sessions designed to maximize strategic value while respecting members’ time commitments.
| Element | Description | Member Benefit |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly Session Structure | Full-day sessions are held once a month and are designed to maximize strategic value while respecting time commitments. | Dedicated space for reflection, planning and problem-solving. |
| Issue Processing | Members present real challenges and receive unfiltered peer feedback using Vistage’s proprietary framework. | Keeps discussions focused, productive and actionable. |
| Expert Speakers | High-caliber speakers address current business, leadership and personal development topics. | Sparks innovative thinking and introduces proven strategies. |
| Individual Coaching Integration | Monthly one-on-one sessions with Chairs that complement group insights. | Personalized leadership development, goal tracking and targeted support. |
| Accountability framework | Members commit to actions in front of other CEOs and business leaders. | This approach creates accountability deeper than traditional coaching, since peers understand the real stakes of leadership decisions. |
Dallas Vistage members demonstrate how strategic peer advisory accelerates both leadership development and business performance across diverse industries.
CEO & Co-Founder, mender | Member since 2018 | Impact Award
Kent co-founded mender in 2019, establishing an electronics recycling venture with a mission-driven culture. When market conditions shifted during the pandemic, he executed a strategic pivot that positioned the company for success. Since then, mender has grown substantially, maintaining efficiency with a streamlined team of 34. His leadership approach balances purpose with performance excellence.
President, King of Texas Roofing Company | Member since 2021 | Leadership Award
Kelly joined her family’s third-generation construction business in 2011. Through fostering collaboration, implementing a KPI dashboard and launching an employee certification program, she has fueled success. In 2023, revenue soared from $30-40 millionto $59 million, while boosting production by 30-40% with two-thirds of the staff. By modernizing the management style, Kelly has secured its legacy and growth.
President & Owner, Critical Electric Systems Group (CESG) | Member since 2013 | Lifetime Achievement Award
Since 2004, Danny has driven success as the leader of an electrical contractor based in both Texas and California. After buying out his partner in early 2020 and facing a 20% revenue drop due to the pandemic, he led the team to a remarkable recovery, improving CESG along the way. A 2022 Vistage Leadership Award winner, Danny embodies the company’s core values and the 21 “CESG Ways” promoting an engaged workforce.
Principal & Founder, The Five Levers | Member since 2009-2022 | Legacy Award
Dusty focused his 25-year CEO career on turnarounds. In his final CEO role at CDF Capital, his team transformed a toxic culture while optimizing overhead and growing net assets by 33%. His proprietary Five Levers of Corporate Culture framework was the foundation for each turnaround. In his post-CEO life, Dusty is serving leaders through his boutique executive advising firm, The Five Levers, Inc.
Dallas executives who commit to structured peer development experience a level of accountability deeper than traditional coaching. When your peer group understands the complexity of your decisions and the stakes involved, their insights drive measurable change in both leadership capability and business performance.
Executive Development Tailored to Your Level
Vistage isn’t for everyone — and that’s by design. Vistage serves exclusively growth-minded CEOs and executives who are committed to developing their leadership capabilities alongside their business results. If you’re leading a $5M+ company in Dallas and ready for the strategic accountability that accelerates both personal and organizational performance, this is your next step forward.
With 45,000 members across 40 countries and proven methodologies that have shaped exceptional leaders for more than six decades, Vistage provides the structured peer environment where good leaders become great ones. Dallas chairs bring diverse expertise and deep commitment to developing the leadership capabilities your organization needs to thrive.
The right peer advisory group becomes your strategic advantage — challenging your thinking, expanding your capabilities and providing the insights that transform potential into performance.
Experience a Vistage group meeting before making any commitment. Most Dallas executives recognize within one session whether this level of strategic peer advisory matches their leadership development goals.
You’ve launched a successful company and worn every hat — CFO, CMO, head of sales, even customer support — along the way. As the business has grown, the grit, creativity and relentless energy that got you to this point may no longer be enough to take the organization to the next level.
“Scalability requires different leadership,” says Dan Quiggle, author, founder and CEO of The Quiggle Group. “Founders excel at vision and hands-on problem solving, but as a company grows, success hinges on scalable processes like delegation and systemized decision-making.”
Without shifting from a founder to a CEO mindset, growth can stall. Bottlenecks emerge, culture fragments and burnout threaten both the leader and the organization. Mastering this transition is vital for sustained success.
David Friedman, author, Vistage speaker, CEO, and developer of CultureWise®, bluntly frames the options: founders must either step into the CEO role, bring someone in to fill it, or risk failure.
“The most important shift that has to take place is recognizing that the success of the business is more a function of how well run the company is than how good you are at the specific skill, craft or expertise you started the business with,” Friedman says. “That’s a huge shift that many people don’t make successfully.”
Making the move from founder to CEO is about more than new responsibilities. It’s about embracing a significant mindset shift.
Founders are scrappy and excel at “doing.” They are visionaries who take a hands-on leadership approach and are directly involved in day-to-day operations, as early-stage companies require a focus on product, market fit, and operations.
“There are two kinds of founders,” Friedman explains. “Those who start a business because they’re subject matter experts who want to work for themselves, and those who are visionaries.”
He adds that regardless of the type of founder you consider yourself to be, redefining what productivity means is a significant part of the mindset shift needed for success.
CEOs focus on systems, culture and long-term growth. They empower leadership teams, delegate decision-making and ensure alignment between strategy and execution. Their role is less about solving every problem and more about ensuring the right people and processes are in place to solve them.
“The CEO mindset focuses on risk assessment, controls and governance,” Quiggle says. “If you don’t handle those, they can become costly missteps. A CEO is always striving to reduce risk while enabling growth.”
How do you know it’s time to shift from founder to CEO? There are clear signals you shouldn’t ignore. Company size is one, says Friedman.
“When a company is small, people can pick things up from you by example,” he says. “But as it grows to 25, 50, or 100 employees, you have to lead through others and set direction.”
If any of the following scenarios also sound familiar, it’s an indicator that now is the time to step into the CEO role, or hire someone else to:
Waiting too long to embrace the CEO role can be costly. Founders who cling to every decision quickly become bottlenecks, slowing innovation and frustrating high-potential employees.
Growth stalls, opening the door for competitors to take market share. Culture erodes as misalignment spreads. And founders risk burnout from doing it all rather than delegating to a capable leadership team.
The longer a founder waits to transition into the CEO role, the harder it becomes to regain momentum.
Many entrepreneurs encounter similar challenges during the transition from founder to CEO. Knowing those in advance can help you prepare for them.
In his paper, From Founder to CEO: An Entrepreneur’s Roadmap, Joseph C. Picken outlines 8 hurdles entrepreneurs encounter on their journey from founder to CEO. They include:
The transition also requires profound personal growth. Entrepreneurial skills — creativity, hustle and resilience — don’t automatically translate to CEO skills like delegation, communication, and governance.
“How do I give leaders clear direction and accountability while also allowing them the freedom to own their area?” Friedman asks. “It’s not my job to solve their problems — it’s my job to set direction, hold them accountable, and support them.”
This balancing act demands new behaviors: inspiring through vision instead of direction, leading through influence rather than control, and redefining productivity as enabling others rather than doing it all yourself.
“That’s a hard skill to learn, because for many CEOs, they want to step in and either do things or figure it out,” he adds.
Preparing to step into the CEO role requires acquiring new skills, shifting patterns of thinking and daily behaviors. Knowing which shifts are required ensures you’re ready for the transition.
One of the most challenging shifts for founders is stepping back from the day-to-day and instead building a team that executes on your vision. Instead of doing it all, you must learn to trust your teams and direct your energy toward steering the business forward.
“Maintaining a clear strategic plan, delegating and empowering others are some of the biggest shifts in skill sets,” Quiggle says. “You also have to be a better communicator — a master — too.”
Friedman agrees and adds that, in addition to shifting to a process-oriented approach, moving from founder to CEO requires the skills to provide clear direction, accountability, and support to leadership teams.
“That is a hard skill to develop for many CEOs because they want to step in and do the job themselves,” he says.
Transitioning into the CEO role requires openness to learning and adapting to the evolving role. With a growth mindset, CEOs can face uncertainty with confidence and inspire the same resilience in their teams.
“Internally, a CEO must have an openness and curiosity to thinking in new ways,” Friedman says. “In terms of external resources, beyond the obvious things, like reading, CEOs need a peer group who can be a sounding board and a coach.”
Quiggle adds that developing a comfort level with vulnerability and accepting feedback that may be hard to hear is critical. Vistage’s continuous coaching supports founders and CEOs in developing these skills and others to encourage long-term growth and adaptability.
Successful transitions are rarely accidental. They require intentional steps: delegating responsibilities, focusing more on strategy, and communicating your evolving role.
Transitioning from founder to CEO requires high levels of trust throughout the organization. Information sharing and clarity are the foundation for building trust, according to Friedman, who recommends reading Stephen M.R. Covey’s book The Speed of Trust and Patrick Lencioni’s books for practical trust-building strategies.
Clear, frequent communication is essential to ensuring a seamless transition. When a leadership transition occurs, employees often feel uncertain and wonder what it means for their roles, priorities, and the company’s direction.
Being upfront about the changes, while reinforcing the organization’s long-term goals, helps reduce anxiety. The more employees understand why the change is happening and how they fit into it, the faster they’ll align behind your vision.
“Communicate early and often,” Quiggle says. “Set expectations with the team about the transition timeline and what changes they can expect.”
Starting your CEO journey? Download the First-time CEO Survival Guide and gain the insights you need for success.
Long-term success requires more than vision. It requires systems, processes and a commitment to ongoing learning.
In the start-up and early growth stages, less formal structures and “winging it” can be successful. But as the company scales and bigger goals are set, that’s no longer enough to maintain forward momentum.
“What’s necessary for a CEO to grow and scale is a level of detail orientation, system orientation and process building in a consistent way,” Friedman says.
Institutionalizing those processes through quarterly planning, dashboards and governance rituals is also important, according to Quiggle. To achieve this, he recommends scheduling blocks of time for thinking, talking with stakeholders and crafting a personal transition plan that includes reflecting on your legacy and what you want it to be.
“One younger CEO I’ve worked with said he spent 15 minutes every Tuesday and Thursday morning doing dream walks around the lake in front of his building,” Quiggle says. “He also had his assistant have key employees join him so he could ask them questions about what they saw for the future of the company and for themselves, which helped him identify the perfect fit for the president role.”
The journey from founder to CEO is one of the most critical leadership shifts in business. It requires letting go of control, redefining productivity, and embracing a new identity as the visionary leader of a growing enterprise.
That journey, however, doesn’t have to take place in isolation. Vistage executive coaching and leadership programs can offer valuable insights into transitioning into the CEO role and help accelerate the journey.
“Having a group of peers who can be a sounding board, people who’ve had experiences you haven’t, allows you to make fewer mistakes or take shortcuts,” Friedman says. “The value of having a Vistage peer group as a sounding board is really important.”
Ultimately, it’s up to the founders to embrace and master everything that’s needed for the role: from strategic thinking and communication to talent development and governance. And if they can, they’ll evolve into highly effective CEOs who inspire teams, drive growth, and create lasting impact.
Shared Fate: The Secret Ingredient for Accountable Teams
Entering 2026, small and midsize businesses are navigating a world of constant change, shaped by rapid advancements in AI, shifting workforce dynamics, global instability, and economic uncertainty.
To help you make informed decisions, Vistage speaker and strategy expert Marc Emmer shares his forecast for 2026, covering 4 key areas covered in his popular trends series:
Marc’s insights show you how to turn trends in each of these areas into opportunities for growth and gain a lasting competitive edge for your business.
Part I: Social and Workforce Trends for 2026 and Beyond
Part II: Technology Trends for 2026 and Beyond
Part III: Special Report: AI Trends for 2026 and Beyond
Part IV: Economic Trends for 2026 and Beyond
Marc Emmer is President of Optimize Inc., a management consulting firm based in Los Angeles. Marc is a 20-year Vistage member and is recognized throughout North America as an author, speaker and expert on strategy and strategic planning. The release of his second book, Momentum: How Companies Decide What to Do Next, was covered online by Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, CBS and CNBC. Marc has crafted strategic plans for over 200 organizations, including more than 100 Vistage members. He is a frequent contributor to the Vistage Research Center, Forbes.com and Inc.com.
Chicago business leaders operate in one of the most dynamic markets in the U.S. From global finance and health care to manufacturing and technology, executives face complex decisions that shape their companies and the region’s economy. Peer advisory groups provide a confidential space where CEOs can navigate these challenges with guidance from accomplished peers who understand what’s at stake.
This guide highlights the premier peer advisory options for Chicago-area executives, with a focus on Vistage’s established presence in the region.
When I was introduced to Vistage, I understood that this was an opportunity for me to have a group to rely upon.
— Robert Balentine, Founding Partner & Chairman, Balentine LLC
In this article, you’ll learn:
Strategic isolation is one of the toughest challenges for leaders in Chicago’s diverse business environment. Whether you’re preparing for expansion into new markets, evaluating acquisition opportunities or steering through labor challenges, the weight of these decisions often rests on you alone.
Vistage provides a network of CEOs, business owners, and founders who understand those pressures firsthand and hold each other accountable for achieving meaningful results. These groups are where good leaders become great.
Executive coaching offers one expert’s view. A Vistage peer group in Chicago offers a broader conversation of 12–16 participants that leaves you with actionable insights from experienced leaders. Members include leaders from non-competing companies across industries like logistics, finance, manufacturing, and health care. That diversity helps uncover blind spots and strategies you won’t find in industry-specific circles.
Vistage members consistently outperform non-members in volatile markets.
Each Chicago Vistage group is professionally facilitated by an accomplished Chair with executive experience. Here’s how they work:
| Group Structure and Membership Criteria | Vistage Chicago groups bring together 12–16 CEOs from non-competing companies, each leading organizations with $5M+ in annual revenue. Members commit to monthly full-day sessions designed for maximum impact, blending confidential peer advisory, expert speaker presentations and one-to-one coaching guided by Vistage’s proven issue processing framework. |
| Professional Chair Facilitation | Every Chicago peer group is led by an accomplished Chair with first-hand CEO experience. These Chairs guide discussions using structured methodologies that keep conversations productive and focused. When a decision carries the potential to reshape your business, the Chair ensures you receive insights that reveal blind spots and strengthen your strategy. |
| Confidentiality Protocols | The noncompeting membership model ensures a trusted environment where sensitive strategic issues can be discussed openly. Each Chicago group operates under strict confidentiality agreements, giving members the confidence to share vulnerabilities, test high-stakes ideas and uncover breakthrough solutions without risk. |
Aimee Daniels brings more than 26 years of experience in building and growing financial service businesses, including serving as Regional President and EVP in the banking industry. Since becoming a Vistage Master Chair in 2012, she has led multiple CEO peer groups, a Key Executive group and a Vistage Inside group, guiding leaders from early-stage to mid nine-figure companies.
She also serves as Chicago’s Best Practice Chair and was the 2024 recipient of the Pat Hyndman Award, in addition to earning Chair Excellence awards every year since 2015. Her leadership extends beyond Vistage through advisory roles with companies like Elkay Interior Systems and Antunes, as well as service on numerous nonprofit boards.
Chuck Andrews draws on decades of leadership across technology firms from Fortune 500 companies to start-ups, as both an executive and investor. As Co-Chair of a Vistage CEO group, he helps leaders strengthen their decision-making through peer accountability and leadership development.
He founded CEO15 Ventures in 2002 and is also a Certified Value Builder Advisor and a Positive Intelligence Coach, supporting executives with value-creation strategies and mental fitness practices. His background in M&A and wealth management, combined with his commitment to philanthropy, gives his groups a blend of financial expertise and personal growth perspective that fuels both business and leadership outcomes.
Gary Arakelian brings more than 30 years of executive management and entrepreneurial experience, having built and led companies in software technology, sales force automation, supply chain management, 3PL and distribution. Today, he serves as a merger and acquisition advisor for lower-middle-market business owners preparing for liquidity events.
His career as a founder and operator provides Vistage members with first-hand knowledge of scaling businesses, navigating competitive industries and maximizing enterprise value. Gary’s advisory style reflects his entrepreneurial drive, helping Chicago executives find clarity and opportunity in complex growth decisions.
Chicago Vistage groups balance structure with flexibility to maximize value for busy executives.
| Element | Description | Member Benefit |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly Sessions | Full-day meetings held once a month | Dedicated time for reflection, planning and strategic problem-solving |
| Issue Processing | Real challenges presented for structured peer feedback | Keeps discussions actionable and results-oriented |
| Expert Speakers | National-caliber speakers on business, leadership and personal growth | Introduces proven strategies and sparks new thinking |
| Chair Coaching | Monthly one-on-one sessions with the group Chair | Personalized leadership support and goal tracking |
| Accountability | Members commit to actions in front of peers | Creates accountability deeper than traditional coaching |
Accelerating business growth: Dr. Stephen Broomes, Founder and CEO of Accolade Consultants, reported that since joining Vistage, his business has grown 30% and nearly doubled in staff. He credits the group not only with tangible growth but also with helping him become a stronger leader.
Scaling revenue and impact: Caryn G. Mathes, President and General Manager of Puget Sound Public Radio KUOW, leveraged peer insights to guide 7 years of expansion. Her organization added 55 staff members, doubled annual revenue to $22M and significantly broadened its reach and impact.
Transforming company value: Mark Marmo, CEO of Deep Well Services, and his team turned a business valued at zero into a $63 million exit. Through Vistage support and peer accountability, they positioned the company to maximize value and choose the right investors for the future.
When you commit to action in front of other Chicago CEOs, accountability runs deeper than in any traditional coaching model. The benefits go beyond immediate problem-solving:
Vistage isn’t for everyone — and that’s by design. It’s designed for CEOs and senior executives of $5M+ companies committed to strategic growth, accountability and better decision-making. Chicago’s established groups provide a proven environment where leaders sharpen their skills, strengthen their businesses and connect with peers who understand the stakes.
Ready to explore whether a Chicago peer advisory group is right for you?
For years, SEO was about one thing: getting to the top of Google. If you weren’t on page one, you might as well have been invisible. But thanks to generative AI, the rules have changed — and so must your strategy.
This shift has introduced a new marketing paradigm: Search Everywhere Optimization.
Generative AI tools like Google Gemini, Microsoft Copilot, and ChatGPT don’t just point users to websites. They create complete answers, summaries, and recommendations instantly. That means your prospect may never click a link at all — unless your content is optimized to appear in the answer itself.
The scale of adoption is staggering. As of September 2025, ChatGPT has 782 million unique users, and Microsoft Copilot (powered by ChatGPT) adds another 93 million. Together, that’s about 838 million monthly users — a 116% year-over-year increase. ChatGPT now holds 74.5% of the overall AI search and chat market share, while Google Gemini accounts for 13.4% and Perplexity 6.5%.
Your prospects are no longer patient researchers. Industry analysis shows users increasingly value the convenience of information over quality. A recent survey found most ChatGPT users prefer quick, straightforward answers — even if they bypass longer, higher-quality sources.
This is where Search Everywhere Optimization comes in. It is the practice of ensuring your brand and content are findable across every platform where people are searching — not just Google. That means optimizing for:
One of the top questions people ask is, “What is the difference between generative search and SEO?”
Generative search, or generative AI-driven search, doesn’t just return a list of links. It synthesizes information, provides answers, cites sources, and even summarizes. Traditional SEO, by contrast, focuses on optimizing for search engine result pages (SERPs) — ranking pages, getting clicks, building backlinks, and similar tactics.
Another common question: “Will SEO die with AI?” The answer is no, but it is evolving. SEO as we know it will not vanish overnight, but it is no longer sufficient on its own.
Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) is not a replacement for SEO, but an added layer. You still need SEO fundamentals, but if your content has zero presence in AI-driven results, you are losing a large part of the market.
Finally, “How do I optimize for generative search?” Best practices include:
The partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI has pushed Bing into the spotlight. ChatGPT uses Bing as its default search engine, meaning Bing results influence what millions of ChatGPT users see every day.
While Bing’s overall global market share sits at 3.88%, it controls 11.73% of desktop search thanks to its integration with Windows and Edge. In North America, Bing’s overall market share is 7.36%, including 7.5% in the U.S.
Google, meanwhile, still dominates with over 90% global market share, and its financial results prove its resilience. In Q2 2025, Google reported $96 billion in revenue, with $71 billion from advertising, up 10% year over year.
The Google Search segment earned $54 billion in Q2 2025 alone, a 12% jump, thanks to AI Overviews, which now reach more than 2 billion monthly users. Over 2 million advertisers are actively using Google’s generative AI tools for ads, a 50% increase from the previous year.
The takeaway: Bing has gained visibility thanks to ChatGPT, but Google remains an advertising powerhouse. For business leaders, the message is clear: you must optimize for both.
CEOs face a choice: invest in their in-house marketing resources or upgrade their outsourced vendors to meet the demands of generative search. Neither option is optional anymore if you want to stay competitive.
In-house investment provides control, cultural alignment, and the ability to iterate quickly, but it comes with a learning curve and training costs. Outsourced vendors may deliver faster results and specialized expertise, but only if they are up to speed on generative optimization. The key is to demand proof of competency, require transparency, and test with small pilot projects before committing fully.
The ideal stack is one AI research tool (Gemini or Perplexity), one content generator (ChatGPT or Jasper), one SEO analytics tool (SEMRush, Ahrefs, or Surfer SEO), and one audience insight tool (SparkToro). Together, these create a lean but powerful Content Generation Machine.
Generative AI has ushered in a new era of search, and leaders who embrace the idea of Search Everywhere Optimization will hold the competitive advantage. Those who don’t risk becoming invisible in the very places where their customers are making decisions.
The future of SEO is not just about being found on Google. It’s about being findable everywhere.
Want to learn more? Then check out Heather’s discussion, AI and SEO: A CEO’s Guide to Finadability. The discussion includes a Q&A session with Vistage Chair Jeff Oak.
In this year’s trend series, we reflect on a business cycle shaping a new set of challenges for Vistage members. Small and midsize businesses (SMBs) wrestle with tariff uncertainty, higher input costs, the no-hire/no-fire job market, and accelerating technological disruption.
2026 will test our resilience, discipline, and adaptability. The trend series illuminates 5 converging forces:
The opportunity is to lead the transformation now while competitors are mired in the mud.
Want to get ahead of the curve? Watch Marc Emmer explore business trends for 2026 and beyond in this on-demand webinar.
Growth next year will remain modest, hovering near 1–2% amid escalating costs for materials, logistics, and labor. The true impact of tariffs will become more evident in the next 6 months. Inflation is no longer a blip; it’s a semi-permanent condition that will keep pressure on margins. Interest rates may ease slightly, but not enough to restore the cheap-capital environment of the 2010s.
This means companies must pivot from a growth to a profitability mindset. Expect to see more scrutiny from lenders and investors, slower payback periods for capital projects, and a premium on operational excellence — powered by AI.
M&A will continue, but deal logic will shift from scale and market share to synergy and resilience. The winners will be those with clean balance sheets, stable margins, and credible plans to automate and optimize. Owners of healthy companies should put themselves in a position to exit between 2027 and 2030, before the bottom falls out of the market.
The war for talent is not a metaphor; it’s a math problem. With lower birth rates, an aging workforce, and restricted immigration, there simply aren’t enough workers to go around. Meanwhile, employee expectations continue to evolve toward flexibility, purpose, and growth.
Engagement is the hidden crisis. Fewer than 1 in 3 employees are fully engaged, and disengagement directly suppresses productivity and innovation. The new social contract will require employers to deliver not just pay, but meaning, development, and belonging.
For SMBs, this means leadership quality becomes a competitive advantage. Retention will depend less on perks and more on culture, autonomy, and communication.
Technology is now a strategic infrastructure. What used to be “IT” is now the backbone of every decision, transaction, and customer experience.
For smaller firms, the democratization of tech means you can now access the same cloud, automation, and analytics power that Fortune 500s use — but only if you deploy it intentionally. In 2026, the focus will be on integration, data governance, and cybersecurity. The new digital divide isn’t who has tech; it’s who uses it with purpose. We strongly recommend that Vistage members benchmark their competition’s IT spend and outspend them by 1-2%.
Artificial intelligence has moved from experimentation to execution. The coming year will see agentic AI — systems that can reason, plan, and act autonomously — entering business operations in sales, logistics, HR, and finance.
AI will not replace managers, but managers who use AI will replace those who don’t.
2026 will reward leaders who balance optimism with realism. The next two years will not be about predicting the economy — they’ll be about controlling what’s controllable: cost structure, culture, and capability.
SMBs that build lean operations, modern technology foundations, and high-trust cultures will not only survive this transition, but they’ll also emerge as more valuable companies capable of sustaining competitive advantage.
“Only time will tell” is a time-honored truth. No strategy instantly comes to life at its announcement; it takes time for the initiatives to take hold and begin to have an impact. Leaders have a vision and extol the greatness of things to come, promising a brighter tomorrow, given time. However, it requires patience to see that vision come into reality, especially in uncertain times.
The Q3 2025 Vistage CEO Confidence Index remains ‘in neutral’ as CEOs await a pivot to prosperity or a retreat into recession. The Index rose by 4.7 points to reach 81.9, but despite the gain, this level of confidence has not yet broken the low of 2024. While slightly above the 12-quarter average of 80.2, confidence remains well below the 97.8 average of the 2010s.
Each of the six components that comprise the Vistage CEO Index experienced a slight increase from the previous quarter. Backward-looking views of the economy improved, but forward-looking expectations barely rose. Anticipated revenue and profits ticked up as well, slightly above the 3-year average. Investments and hiring followed suit with minor increases.
While there is good news in the fact that the proportion of CEOs planning to increase headcount in the year ahead grew 6 points from last quarter to reach 48%, 13% plan for reduced headcount in the next 12 months. This represents three consecutive quarters where the proportion of CEOs expecting headcount to decrease has been in double digits, exceeded only by Q2 2020, which marked the depth of pandemic uncertainty and the Great Recession.
“Recent CEO sentiment points to a more subdued expansion ahead,” said Lauren Saidel-Baker, CFA and economist at ITR Economics. While the survey closed before the Federal Reserve meeting, Saidel Baker notes that while “the Federal Reserve enacted a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, conflicting statements from Fed officials have added to overall uncertainty.”
While the challenges that CEOs face have mainly remained the same, the perspective and priorities they place on these shifts are influenced by new data, changing perspectives, and the passage of time.
Economic and policy uncertainty continues to be the top challenge for CEOs, unchanged from last quarter; however, their attention has shifted. In Q2, CEOs voiced concerns about tariffs, unpredictable federal policies, geopolitical tensions, and interest rates. Three months later, their focus has shifted to a broader set of worries about the economy, policy swings, and customer caution. There is a greater focus on general economic instability rather than specific tariffs. The top challenges referenced included slowing sales, customer hesitation, and reduced demand, suggesting a softening marketplace.
Hiring and retention has replaced tariffs and trade as the #2 issue for CEOs, marking another shift. Last quarter, labor issues were #3, but upward pressure on labor concerns and challenges has pushed hiring and retention to where it now stands, nearly at the top.
Businesses struggle to recruit both skilled labor, such as technicians and engineers, and leadership talent, while wage inflation and high turnover exacerbate the issue. Immigration contributes to this challenge for small and midsize businesses in certain sectors.
Tariffs & Trade Policy slipped to #3. The on-again/off-again tariffs uncertainty, supply chain impacts, and resulting pricing swings continue to weigh on CEOs. The ongoing discussion of trade wars, global uncertainty, and geopolitical instability, accompanied by frequent shifts in U.S. trade policy, has led to disrupted supply chains, increased input costs, and delayed capital projects.
Rising costs and inflation remain a persistent issue as materials, wages, and interest rates all shift in bad directions. While the proportion of CEOs expecting increased revenues in the year ahead ticked up, the top 5 challenges, including softening/delayed customer demand, are also on the rise. While more may expect increased revenues, the rate of revenue growth may be slower due to customer hesitation.
Tariffs have quickly gone from headlines in Q1 to bottom lines in Q3. The initial whipsaw of changes to tariffs has now somewhat stabilized, allowing the 35% of CEOs who say they are directly impacted by tariffs to adapt. Another 36% say they are indirectly impacted, with just 5% experiencing a positive impact.
Tariffs are beginning to take their bite out of SMBs. The most significant impact is on costs: 62% report that tariffs have increased their costs, and correspondingly, 46% have experienced decreased profitability as a result. Among the negative impacts are declines in customer demand, reported by 37% of CEOs, and declines in revenue, reported by 33%. While tariffs generate a revenue windfall for the government, they come at the cost of reduced margins and profitability for businesses.
CEOs are not standing still. Tariffs are impacting them on several fronts and reshaping their operations. Indeed, 43% of CEOs have already increased prices, and 51% plan to raise prices in the next 3 months. Of those raising prices, half plan increases of 4% to 10%, while 15% will increase prices by more than 10%. Other actions as a result of tariffs include:
The costs of critical materials, including steel, aluminum, copper, wood, and electronics, have increased by anywhere from 10% to 50%. Some suppliers are using tariffs as an excuse to further increase prices. Part of those increases is passed to customers through surcharges or higher bids.
The bigger headache is uncertainty. Tariff rules and rates are constantly changing, making budgeting, quoting, and long-term planning challenging. Projects get delayed, capital spending is frozen, and clients hesitate to commit when nobody knows what their costs will look like next quarter. Customers postpone purchases or cancel plans, especially in construction, manufacturing, and export-oriented markets, as they absorb the impact of tariffs.
Some leaders have made supply-chain shifts, sourcing more materials domestically or relocating production to lower-tariff countries like Mexico and Australia, even though these options often come at a higher cost. Domestic producers can gain an edge by taking advantage of others’ rising costs, improving margins, and price competitiveness. The tariffs are not temporary. They will continue to make planning a day-to-day function instead of confidently investing in growth. In this environment, strategic planning becomes even more critical.
Gain insights on optimizing engagement and get the most out of your teams
Read the full Q3 2025 Vistage CEO Confidence Index report
Another policy that can have a profound impact on small and midsize businesses is immigration. While 70% of CEOs report no direct operational impact from recent immigration policy changes, a small but significant minority of CEOs (15%) have experienced indirect but tangible effects.
For those managing the impacts, a recurring theme is heightened fear and anxiety among employees, even those fully documented or naturalized. CEOs report that staff members are worried about their families, avoid public gatherings, or feel targeted because of their appearance or language, which in turn lowers morale and productivity.
Industries dependent on immigrant labor — particularly construction, agriculture, manufacturing, and hospitality — face the most significant pressure. These employers note fewer applicants, rising wages, and the loss of skilled and unskilled workers due to visa delays or the revocation of Temporary Protected Status. High-skill sectors, including technology, also report difficulty attracting global talent as visa processing slows and international candidates perceive the United States as less welcoming.
These challenges ripple outward, increasing subcontractor costs, delaying projects, and straining customer service. While most companies remain unaffected for now, those confronting labor shortages and employee unease highlight the broader economic stakes of immigration policy.
Just 10% of CEOs report trouble with Visa and Trusted Person Status (TPS) complications, which are causing delays, loss of existing talent and creating difficulty attracting global talent. The newly announced changes to the H1B visas will affect those already in the United States, but replacing them or adding foreign expertise to current workforces will be expensive.
One factor that impacts all small and midsize businesses is the workforce model they have adopted since the pandemic. The transition from the pre-COVID Monday-Friday/9 to 5 (MF95) office to the workplace of today is now complete. The workplace of small to midsize businesses has become mostly stable over time, with a modest increase in those who are entirely in the office compared to Q2 2022.
With today’s economic uncertainty, rising inflation, and taxing tariffs, among other factors, CEOs have little appetite for changing the makeup of their workforce by disrupting their workplace. Any change would break the now-established workplace status quo, impacting the employee’s workplace experience. At the end of last year, 75% of CEOs anticipated no change in their workplace model. While 20% planned to make changes, the majority were adjusting their in-office requirement from 3 to 4 days.
The dynamics of the workplace have a direct impact on how workers feel about their job and their level of engagement. Flexibility has emerged as the new requirement for the workplace. In the MF95 world, the physical workplace and the tools, machines, devices, and technology used defined their experience, as attendance was required. Now, flexibility has become the third leg of the workplace, with hybrid and fully remote roles accepted.
The physical workplace, combined with the worker’s boss and the culture, creates a Venn diagram of the employee experience. CEOs have control of each of those attributes. The experience they create for their workforce impacts both retention and recruitment, as workers have had options. Engagement of workers will be critical to retention.
To drive engagement, CEOs shared different best practices. Just over half use retention rates, a lagging indicator. While most measure engagement through managers, over 6 in 10 leverage engagement surveys. As Katina Holliday, founder and CEO of Carson, California-based Helping Hands, Inc., shares, their employee engagement priorities include “different types of recognition, increasing bonuses for employee of the month, and incorporating a leadership training program.”
CEOs are waiting for the time when new policies regarding trade, tariffs, taxes, and immigration will fully take effect. Forecasts of future growth offset predictions of impending doom, and yet only time will tell. That’s why CEOs remain in a waiting mode to see if they need to become more conservative in their expectations of unfavorable outcomes or become more aggressive as opportunities unfold. One certainty is that the clock will always keep ticking, constantly pushing the economy to a pivot point where words, promises, and predictions are replaced by reality.
To explore the full Vistage CEO Confidence survey dataset, view the infographic and visit our data center.
The Q3 2025 Vistage CEO Confidence Index survey was conducted between September 2 and 16, 2025, and captured input from 1,349 leaders who are active Vistage members of Chief Executive and Small Business groups in the United States.
Economic headlines thrive on sensationalism. But the reality is often far more balanced.
Around the world, populist politics often drag on growth through debt, protectionism, and weaker institutions, and the UK is not immune to political missteps. Government communication is poor, debt is high, and broad tax cuts are off the table.
Yet there are reasons for optimism: infrastructure spending is rising, SMEs remain resilient, and the data signals steady, if unspectacular, growth.
Roger Martin-Fagg’s September 2025 economic update cuts through the noise with a behavioural lens on how money really flows. Here are a few snapshots from the report.
Looking at the UK economy, a “visitor from Mars,” as Roger puts it, would see much to be positive about:
But the details matter:
Yet, SMEs remain adaptive.
Lloyds’ August survey shows businesses’ confidence in their trading prospects is at its highest since 2014, with retail confidence at a five-month high and manufacturing confidence at its highest for ten years.
Across the Atlantic, US GDP looks stable at 2.8%, but the picture is mixed.
Populism tends to slow growth through debt, protectionism, and weaker institutions. All of which are present in the US today. This signals potential softness ahead.
Finally, Roger warns that while agriculture is a small share of US GDP, widespread Midwest farm bankruptcies could spark a financial crisis reminiscent of the 1980s savings-and-loan collapse.
Roger’s advice remains clear: Focus on what you can control.
Download the full Economic Update September 2025 here.
In Part IV of our series, we focus on Economic Trends facing small and midsize businesses (SMBs) in 2026 and beyond.
Margaret Thatcher once said, “Standing in the middle of the road is very dangerous; you get knocked down by the traffic from both sides.”
Small and midsize businesses are under pressure to maintain volume and pricing as tariffs and other inputs bite into margins. After spiking to 40-year highs, inflation has cooled but continues to run above the Federal Reserve’s target. Labor is scarce and expensive, with wages and benefits climbing fast. All this at a time when the cost of capital remains high, and growth plans are muted.
But opportunities exist — from productivity boosts via AI to growth in key industries like tech, health care, and clean energy. In this writing, we consider the economic outlook for 2026, noting a central theme: Vistage members must navigate higher costs and tighter margins. They should focus less on revenue growth and more on protecting profitability.
Despite headwinds, one of the biggest surprises of 2025 has been the resilience of the U.S. economy. Through the third quarter, the S&P 500 gained 9.8%, while the Nasdaq jumped 17.5%, powered by AI stocks. Markets usually recoil from uncertainty, yet even amid tariff turmoil, GDP expanded at a solid 3.8% clip in Q3, replicating its strong showing in Q2. The economy continues to defy gravity.
Want to get ahead of the curve? Watch Marc Emmer explore Business Trends for 2026 and Beyond in this on-demand webinar.
Part I: Social and Workforce Trends for 2026 and Beyond
Part II: Technology Trends for 2026 and Beyond
Part III: Special Report: AI Trends for 2026 and Beyond
Tariff Effective Rate
Source: Bipartisan Policy Center
The press would have you believe tariffs will turn markets upside down, but their impact has been slow to develop. The “effective rate” of tariffs (dollars collected as a % of import volume) remained below 10% until it spiked to 18% in August. This is a predictor of things to come; odds are the U.S. economy will revert to a more tepid growth rate next year.
During President Donald Trump’s first term, it took over a year for tariffs to take hold. This is, of course, the nature of incentives and disincentives — countries naturally move production to items that are not subject to penalty. Conversely, buyers shift to local sources for supply. Most surprising is that as the effective rate of tariffs has risen, inflation has continued to stabilize.
Impact of Tariffs on Inflation
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank
Naturally occurring inflation in our economy brings a false sense of security, and customers have been more accepting of price increases.
The U.S. federal debt now exceeds $34 trillion, and higher interest costs compound the problem. The government’s annual interest payments are approaching $1 trillion, surpassing defense spending and crowding out funds for discretionary programs like infrastructure and education. As debt service consumes a larger share of the budget, fiscal flexibility shrinks — leaving policymakers fewer tools to stimulate growth during downturns. The long-term impacts of the debt cycle are sobering, but borrowing costs should improve.
According to the Conference Board, U.S. GDP is expected to grow a meager 1.3% in 2026. At that rate, the U.S. would grow more slowly than Europe (which has been mired in a slump, partially because many countries there are not participating in the AI revolution). Mexico may be the winner of the trade war, given the shift toward nearshoring.
India’s economy remains one of the world’s fastest-growing, driven by robust domestic consumption, infrastructure spending, and a booming tech and services sector. However, recent frictions with the U.S. over trade policy, semiconductor access, and its neutral stance toward Russia have tempered diplomatic momentum and raised concerns about the stability of future investment and defense cooperation.
Source: The Conference Board
China’s economy is sputtering as global tensions and U.S. tariffs squeeze exports and weaken manufacturing competitiveness. Meanwhile, weak domestic consumption — held back by high household savings, soft wage growth, and shaky job prospects — has left factories grappling with excess capacity and falling prices, tipping parts of the economy toward deflation. Its property boom has morphed into a debt-ridden drag, undermining both consumer confidence and local government finances. Given a rapidly aging population, a shrinking workforce, and the diminishing returns of state-led investment, China’s annual growth projections are only slightly higher than those of more mature economies such as the U.S. (which grows at a slower rate due to the law of large numbers).
Implications: export opportunities exist for niche U.S. SMBs. Supply chains can benefit from nearshoring and selective offshoring, and currency moves may influence import costs and pricing power.
Even as equity markets reach new highs, many American consumers and small businesses feel detached from Wall Street’s success. It’s as if the U.S. now runs on two parallel economies: one powered by the AI revolution, and another struggling to keep pace. For perspective, hyperscalers are expected to pour more than $400 billion into data centers in 2025 — nearly rivaling the $529 billion spent nationwide on roads, bridges, and infrastructure combined. Some view AI as a bubble, in part because of its “circularity.” Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle, AMD, and Microsoft (among others) are signing alliances and making investments in each other, driving up their stock prices without evidence of delivering value back to the economy.
In 2020, large tech stocks made up roughly 18% of the S&P 500; today, the “Magnificent Seven” account for 34%. Stock market spikes only widened the chasm of wealth inequality.
For decades, economists and governments have shaped policy around labor demand, assuming strong job demand drives higher prices. But this cycle is different. It’s defined not only by weaker demand, but by a shrinking supply of workers. The artificial stimulus of the past few years distorted the natural balance between job growth and inflation, leaving the job market out of sync and disrupting the natural correlation of job growth and inflation:
Employment and Inflation
Source: Federal Reserve Bank
While the market has softened, workers remain scarce and more expensive. Unemployment stayed historically low in 2024-2025, and participation constraints continue in select cohorts. Total compensation (wages + benefits) rose sharply over the past five years, with benefits — especially health care — comprising a growing share of employer costs.
SMBs report difficulty filling skilled roles, particularly in trades, logistics, and health care-adjacent services. To compete, firms are increasing wages, enhancing benefits, and offering more flexibility (see our Social and Workforce Trends post for more on hybrid work). HSAs are gaining steam with assets up 19% in 2024.
Growth is uneven across sectors. According to forecasts, technology and professional services, health care and social assistance, and clean-energy supply chains lead mid-decade growth. Infrastructure outlays also support construction, engineering, and selected manufacturing niches.
Source: CBO, OECD
Note: Growth forecasts are not adjusted for inflation, which is why sector growth exceeds “real” GDP growth.
U.S. manufacturing output has grown modestly in 2025, supported by reshoring, infrastructure spending, and continued demand from sectors like aerospace, defense, and AI data centers. However, manufacturers are facing significant pricing pressure. Input costs have stabilized or declined from pandemic peaks, while tariffs and global supply chain shifts have raised uncertainty. At the same time, weak downstream demand, excess durable goods inventory, and slower capital spending have made it difficult to pass on price increases. The result: production volumes remain decent, but profit margins are tightening.
Manufacturing Output
Middle-market M&A showed early-year softness but signs of recovery heading into late 2025. U.S. private equity deal volume rose 6% year-over-year in Q2 2025, with total value up 11%, as trade clarity and Fed rate-cut expectations improved sentiment. Average valuations held near 7.2× EBITDA, but deals ranging between $100 million and 250 million now command 10× multiples, reflecting demand for scale and resilient margins. Health care, business services, and retail gained strength while manufacturing multiples reset to 6.5×. A record $530 billion in undeployed PE “dry powder” and easing credit conditions may accelerate competition for quality assets. For SMB sellers, buyer interest is tilting toward defensible, mid-sized platforms.
Source: Pitch Book
The Administration’s new “reciprocal tariff” regime marks the most sweeping U.S. trade shift in decades. A baseline 10% tariff now applies to nearly all imports, with rates as high as 50% for select nations. These new duties stack on top of older tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, pushing the effective rate paid by importers to roughly 17% — the highest since the 1930s. The result is higher costs throughout supply chains, renewed inflationary pressure, and operational uncertainty for small and midsize businesses.
For SMBs, the challenge is structural: limited sourcing options and smaller purchasing power mean tariffs land harder. Many small manufacturers and distributors are seeing double-digit increases in input costs, while also facing rising expenses for utilities, rent, and insurance. Passing those costs to customers is difficult in competitive markets, especially when large rivals can absorb or offset import costs through volume and hedging.
Still, SMBs can take several steps to cushion the impact. Review supply chains at a granular level — understand the tariff codes tied to each imported component, and where alternate sourcing is viable. Explore reshoring or “nearshoring” options in Mexico or Canada, which may offer cost stability and reduced exposure to trade volatility. Negotiate longer-term contracts with suppliers to lock in pricing or share risk.
The U.S. economy is settling into a period of mild stagflation — marked by low growth, persistent price pressures, and squeezed profit margins. For small and midsize businesses, this means adapting to an environment where revenue growth is harder to come by, costs remain stubbornly high, and efficiency becomes the main lever of success.
The focus for the year ahead should be on smart growth — tightening operations, protecting margins, and seeking selective opportunities where pricing power and productivity gains can still drive ROI.